AGP Executive Report

Economic Growth: Rwanda’s GDP grew 9.7% in the first half of 2026, led by industry, up 15.5%, with construction and manufacturing among the drivers. The central bank projects 7.8% growth for the year. Farm Finance: A new digital lending pilot aims to cut farmers’ wait for agricultural loans from five to seven weeks to under 48 hours. Four banks and microfinance institutions are participating in the six-month trial. Pensions: Contributions rose 51.7% to Rwf457 billion in the year to June, as higher mandatory rates and stronger investment performance boosted the sector. Mining: Rwanda’s Trinity Metals is eyeing a New York IPO as tungsten prices surge, raising the prospect of fresh capital for the country’s mining industry. Agribusiness: Rwanda will present investment opportunities in value chains including tea, livestock, potatoes, avocado and chilli at an FAO forum in Rome next week.

Investor Protection: Rwanda’s Capital Market Authority warned investors to verify offers and use licensed providers, citing rising online fraud risks. Agrifood Investment: Rwanda will pitch projects in tea, livestock, potatoes, avocado and chilli at an FAO forum in Rome, seeking capital for production, processing and market access. Mining: Trinity Metals is weighing a New York IPO as it plans $60–80 million in upgrades at Nyakabingo; the tungsten mine’s output could triple over three to five years. Corporate Governance: New CMA rules strengthen board independence, transparency, shareholder rights and risk management for companies accessing Rwanda’s capital market. Trade and Logistics: Dar es Salaam Port handled 2.18 million tonnes of Rwanda-bound cargo in 2025/26, up 24%, as competition grows to serve inland markets. Food Manufacturing: Africa Improved Foods named Daniel Nyange managing director after he led operations and supply-chain improvements. Agriculture: Rwanda’s CDAT programme is helping smallholders shift from subsistence farming toward market production.

F1 Bid: Rwanda is reportedly set to host a Grand Prix from 2030, with a planned circuit near Bugesera International Airport. The project could create work in construction, tourism and logistics, though a formal announcement is still pending. Capital Markets: New governance rules require stronger board independence, transparency, shareholder protection and risk management, extending to listed firms, state-owned companies and SMEs seeking public investment. Agriculture: The CDAT project is helping smallholders move into commercial horticulture through training, improved seeds and market links; in Bugesera, one cooperative has 470 members farming 210 hectares. Food Manufacturing: Africa Improved Foods named former operations chief Daniel Nyange managing director. He helped deliver US$1 million in savings and improve supply-chain resilience. Regional Trade: Kenya and Rwanda signed 11 cooperation agreements, including steps to strengthen petroleum supply through the Northern Corridor and expand trade and investment ties.

Rwanda–Kenya Trade & Energy: Rwanda and Kenya signed 11 new bilateral agreements after their fuel-supply deal, covering security, immigration, justice, housing, water and diaspora ties—keeping the Northern Corridor central for Rwanda’s fuel access. Rwanda Food Regulation Backlash: Rwanda FDA’s “Overall Winner” award drew sharp online criticism over recent alcohol crackdown and alleged harm from illicit “Ibyuma” drinks, plus complaints about shipment-by-shipment import permits. East Africa Refining Push: Dangote says its $16bn Lamu refinery will be delivered in 40 months and offers 30% equity to East African countries, while Kenya’s port handled first Rwanda fuel cargo under a new framework. EAC–China Projects: The EAC and China are exploring a new framework for strategic regional projects in infrastructure, trade, digital tech and clean energy. Supply Chain & Finance: ASCON awards spotlight African supply chain leadership; EASETRADE will expand agribusiness working-capital financing for MSMEs. Digital Payments: Airtel Money plans a virtual card in Kenya to challenge M-Pesa GlobalPay. Logistics Corridors: Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam port growth is set to give Uganda a second route to sea, with Rwanda transit also rising.

Agroecology & Crops: A Kigali forum discussion on African adapted crops (millet, sorghum, fonio, Bambara groundnut) warned that “new commercial opportunities” can still repeat old, buyer-driven farming models—urging research and markets, but with community rights at the center. Trade & Logistics: Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam port growth is reshaping East Africa’s shipping choices, with transit cargo up 17% in 2025/26 and Rwanda up 24%—opening a potential second route to the sea for landlocked Uganda and strengthening corridor competition. Digital Payments: Airtel Money plans a Kenya launch of a Mastercard virtual card to enable international online payments from mobile wallets, directly challenging M-Pesa GlobalPay. Supply Chain Leadership: Eswatini’s ESPPRA CEO won Africa’s Supply Chain Management Professional of the Year at the ASCON Awards, spotlighting governance, sustainability and digital transformation in regional logistics. Rwanda–Kenya Cooperation: Rwanda and Kenya renewed their JPCC push, with energy and the Northern Corridor—especially access to Mombasa for fuel and imports—front and center. Fuel & Refining: Commentary around Kenya’s shift from imported fuel toward new refining capacity highlights how Lamu’s planned refinery could cut dependence on externally priced products.

Rwanda–Kenya Trade & Energy Push: Rwanda and Kenya reaffirmed their strategic partnership at the 10th JPCC session in Nairobi, with trade corridors and Rwanda’s access to the Port of Mombasa highlighted as key for fuel and imports. AI Accountability in Public Services: A new piece warns that as African governments automate services, accountability can get blurred when proprietary code runs systems—raising the question of who is responsible when AI harms citizens. Investment Climate Watch: Bloomberg’s 2026 Investment Risk-O-Meter says Nigeria is the biggest climber, rising four places to eighth, driven by gains in economic strength, fiscal strength and external vulnerability—overtaking Rwanda, Tanzania, Kenya and Namibia. SME Finance for Agribusiness: EASETRADE, backed by TDF, Trade Catalyst Africa and the Mastercard Foundation, is set to expand working-capital access for youth- and women-led agribusiness and supply-chain MSMEs via structured supply chain financing. Fuel Supply & Refining Theme: Coverage continues to link refinery capacity and regional fuel access to price stability, with attention on East Africa’s refinery momentum and cross-border fuel flows.

East Africa Energy & Capital Markets: Kenya’s Capital Markets Authority has approved Dangote Industries’ global depository receipt, opening the refinery IPO to eligible Kenyan investors and extending an offer already drawing strong interest across Nigeria, as the group pushes to expand East Africa refining capacity. Fuel Prices Pressure: New data shows petrol prices vary sharply across Africa, with September figures highlighting how conflict-linked crude costs, weak local refining, exchange-rate pressure and transport costs keep fuel affordability uneven. Regional Trade & Logistics: Dar es Salaam Port reported a 17% jump in transit cargo in 2025/26, led by DRC and Rwanda flows, underscoring how corridor competition is reshaping routes and costs for inland markets. Digital Access in Kenya: A GSMA/PDAA study finds many Kenyans still can’t use mobile internet due to handset and data costs, plus skills and safety gaps—an issue for productivity and service uptake. Regulatory Moves in Telecoms: MTN’s bid to acquire IHS cleared key competition hurdles in South Africa and Nigeria with conditions, keeping the tower consolidation on track. Rwanda-DRC Security Outlook: Coverage continues on the long road beyond the M23 crisis, with attention on how deeper state fragility and security dynamics affect the region’s stability.

Digital Governance: A debate in Kigali is spotlighting how automated public services can weaken accountability when proprietary code shields officials from constitutional duties. Maritime Security & Trade Costs: Six ship hijackings since April in the western Indian Ocean are pushing up import risks for Kenya and landlocked neighbours. Digital Inclusion: In Kenya, phone and data costs keep many people offline—68% of urban adults use mobile internet, but 27% know it and don’t, and rural use drops to 49%. Health & Local Industry: Nigeria’s NAFDAC is asking international partners to fund fill-and-finish modular vaccine manufacturing to unlock WHO vaccine lot-release maturity. Rwanda Media & Skills: Rwanda Broadcasting Agency signs a cooperation deal with Mozambique’s TVM to exchange digitised programmes and train journalists. Regional Logistics: Dar es Salaam transit cargo rose 17% in 2025/26, with Rwanda-bound volumes up 24%, underlining corridor competition. Food Security in Rwanda: A social programme in Ngororero is using chickens to improve nutrition and incomes, with stunting falling from 50.5% (2020) to 35.8% (2026). Energy & Investment: MTN clears key regulatory hurdles for its IHS tower deal across Africa, aiming to expand service revenue.

East Africa Energy & Industry: Uganda’s Museveni backed Aliko Dangote’s Lamu refinery plan but said Uganda won’t invest until the status of a proposed Tanga refinery is clarified, keeping regional refining politics tied to pipeline-linked logistics. Public Health Manufacturing: Nigeria’s NAFDAC says vaccine production delays are blocking WHO Maturity Level 4 for vaccine lot release, urging international partners to fund modular “fill-and-finish” vaccine plants. Rwanda Business & Media: Rwanda Broadcasting Agency signed a cooperation deal with Mozambique Television to exchange digitized programmes and train journalists, with a focus on tourism, education and tech innovation. Food & Agribusiness: Rwanda’s CDAT support is helping Bugesera chili farmers move from individual selling to coordinated production and stronger market access. Conservation & Tourism: Rwanda’s grey crowned crane work earned Dr. Olivier Nsengimana a TIME100 Next spot, as conservation lifts crane numbers to 1,438. Regional Trade & Logistics: Hapag-Lloyd expands its Africa footprint with new offices including Rwanda, signaling continued growth in shipping and logistics services.

Rwanda Media & Skills: Rwanda Broadcasting Agency (RBA) signed a cooperation deal with Mozambique Television (TVM) to exchange programmes, digitize content and strengthen journalists’ professional skills, with new TV output focused on tourism, education and tech innovation. Textiles & Manufacturing Expansion: Fine Spinners Uganda Limited says it has invested $5m in new textile machinery, boosting capacity by up to 40%, and is now targeting the DRC, Zambia and Ethiopia while already exporting across Africa including Rwanda. Food Systems & Investment: At the Africa Food Systems Forum in Kigali, PepsiCo and RTI International pushed a market-led approach—start with credible demand and off-take, then use public and philanthropic funding to reduce early risk and build durable value chains. Agribusiness on the Ground: Bugesera chili farmers are moving from individual selling to coordinated production and market linkages after support from the CDAT project, improving harvest value and buyer access. Green Transformation: Rwanda’s Green Transformation forestry push is highlighted as planting over 230 million trees over five years, with forest cover at 30.4% and strict annual targets driving results. Health Tech Policy: Nigeria’s health sector is shifting from scattered digital tools to a unified National Digital Health Architecture, a model that signals how regional systems could connect Rwanda-style innovation to national delivery.

E-Mobility Policy: South Africa is being urged to introduce cleaner EV incentives, while Kenya’s special e-mobility electricity tariff is cutting peak/off-peak charging costs for fleet operators. MICE & Investment: Former Nigerian information minister Lai Mohammed says Africa’s Meetings, Incentives, Conferences and Exhibitions should be treated as a $1.3trn “deal-making engine,” not just tourism. Rwanda Conservation & Recognition: Rwanda’s Dr Olivier Nsengimana makes TIME100 Next for protecting grey crowned cranes as the population climbs to 1,438. Food & Farming Commercialisation: Rwanda’s CDAT support is helping Bugesera chili farmers move from individual selling to coordinated production, better inputs, and stronger market links. Logistics & Trade Routes: Dar es Salaam port transit cargo rose 17% in 2025/26, with Rwanda-bound volumes up 24% as corridor upgrades and faster port handling improve reliability. Shipping Expansion: Hapag-Lloyd is opening new offices in Namibia and Kigali to strengthen service for Rwanda and Burundi customers. Finance Safety Nets: Rwanda moves to protect ibimina informal savings groups after authorities found nearly 15,000 groups holding billions of francs, pushing for more transparency and safeguards. Energy & Industry: The Dangote-backed Lamu refinery push continues to reshape East Africa’s refining and fuel supply conversations, with regional implications for trade and jobs.

Energy & Industry: Aliko Dangote and East African leaders broke ground on the $16bn (Sh2.2trn) Lamu refinery in Kenya, targeting 700,000 barrels per day and positioning the project as a major regional energy and jobs play. Trade & Logistics: Dar es Salaam Port’s transit cargo rose 17% to 14.61m tonnes in 2025/26, with Rwanda-bound volumes up 24% to 2.18m tonnes as corridor upgrades and DP World investments cut handling times. Finance & Business: Rwanda’s government moved to protect ibimina (informal savings groups) after nearly 15,000 groups were found holding billions of francs, pushing for safer, more transparent operations. Agri-Enterprise: In Bugesera, chili farmers boosted incomes through the CDAT project via better seeds, training, organic inputs, and stronger market links. Food & Livestock Trade: VIV Africa 2026 returns to Kigali (Oct 7–8) with a full poultry-to-dairy value chain lineup and business networking. Digital Services: MTN Rwanda is rolling out AI to improve fault detection and network uptime as 5G expands. Green Transformation: Rwanda’s five-year green drive has planted over 230m trees, supporting resilience and forest cover at 30.4%.

EADB Leadership: Anne Juuko has been named Director General of the East African Development Bank, effective Oct 2, as the lender rolls out governance reforms aimed at strengthening its regional impact. Digital Public Infrastructure: Rwanda-linked public sector leaders feature on Apolitical’s inaugural 2026 DPI 50 list, spotlighting identity, payments and inclusive digital service delivery. Health Tech: Nigeria’s Ministry of Health says it is moving from scattered digital health tools to a unified National Digital Health Architecture, a model Rwanda’s health-tech community will watch closely. Logistics & Trade: Hapag-Lloyd is expanding in Africa with new offices in Namibia, Rwanda (Kigali) and Burundi, bringing closer customer support for landlocked markets. Energy & Industry: Aliko Dangote’s $16bn East Africa refinery push continues, with Rwanda’s President Kagame confirming preliminary talks on Rwanda joining the project. Agribusiness: Rwanda’s CDAT project reports rising onion yields and farmer incomes in Gisagara through improved practices and composting. Connectivity & Skills: MTN Rwanda says it is using AI in its core network for faster fault detection as it advances 5G rollout.

East Africa Energy & Industry: Aliko Dangote broke ground in Lamu on a $16bn, 700,000-bpd refinery and petrochemicals complex, with Honeywell backing process tech and digital solutions, and a 30% equity offer on the table for Kenya, Rwanda and Ethiopia—Rwanda’s President Kagame confirms preliminary talks. Rwanda Logistics & Fuel Security: Rwanda received its first 40,000-tonne petroleum shipment via Kenya under a new government-to-government framework, with Mombasa flagged as a Northern Corridor gateway and expected volumes rising sharply. Telecom & AI for Operations: MTN Rwanda is integrating AI into its core network to speed fault detection and improve uptime as it pushes 5G rollout. Agribusiness & Post-Harvest: At Kigali’s Africa Food Systems Forum, experts highlighted renewables and farmer aggregation as practical answers to cold-chain gaps and post-harvest losses; locally, the CDAT project is boosting onion yields and incomes in Gisagara. Trade & Shipping: Hapag-Lloyd is opening offices in Namibia and expanding in Kigali to serve Rwanda and Burundi, while HMM plans a new Mombasa–India container service. Policy & Readiness: Rwanda is strengthening preparedness for El Nino-linked extreme rainfall with impact-based forecasting and early warning.

Pharmaceuticals & Industry: RDB CEO Jean-Guy Afrika toured Labophar Plant in Huye, reviewing quality control, R&D and distribution, and pushing plans to expand production capacity—especially intravenous fluids—under the Huye Investment Forum spotlight. Agribusiness: A new push is helping Ruhango tomato farmers boost yields and earnings through improved seeds, training and market links under the CDAT project. Coffee Value Chain: Coverage highlights how Rwanda’s coffee cooperatives support farmers with finance, processing access and market reach—plus a broader look at coffee farmers and quality selection. Regional Energy & Logistics: Rwanda’s fuel supply route via Kenya is now active: a first 40,000-tonne refined petroleum shipment arrived at Mombasa under the Northern Corridor framework, expected to scale volumes. East Africa Refining Push: African leaders broke ground on Dangote’s $16bn Lamu refinery (700,000 bpd) with a 40-month delivery target and major engineering contracts, aiming to deepen regional industrial self-reliance. Finance & Rates: Rwanda faces pressure to expand diesel subsidies to prevent pump-price jumps as global diesel markets stay tight. Trade & Transport: Kenya plans to extend the SGR toward the Tanzania border, strengthening cross-border freight links around Mombasa and Dar es Salaam.

Fuel & Logistics: Rwanda has received its first 40,000-tonne shipment of refined petroleum products via Kenya’s Northern Corridor, landing at Mombasa on MT Sea Wolf—an initial step under a June deal meant to boost Rwanda’s fuel security and multiply corridor volumes in the years ahead. Energy & Industry: Aliko Dangote’s $16bn East Africa refinery in Lamu is set to be delivered in 40 months, with a 700,000-barrel-per-day capacity and a stated push for local jobs, training, and an industrial ecosystem across energy, petrochemicals, logistics, engineering and manufacturing. Project Supply Chain: Early contracts for the Lamu build are already flowing to major engineering and technology firms, including Engineers India Limited and Honeywell, as construction ramps up and thousands of jobs are projected. Rwanda Fuel Costs: Rwanda’s diesel subsidy is under growing pressure as global diesel markets tighten, raising the risk of another pump price increase unless support is expanded. Regional Transport: Kenya plans to extend its SGR from Voi to the Tanzania border (Voi–Taveta) in a US$38.5m project, aiming to strengthen cross-border freight and passenger links around Mombasa and regional hubs. Governance & Trade: Rwanda’s Huye Investment Forum in Southern Province showcased district opportunities in education, agriculture, tourism, manufacturing and services to attract investors and partnerships. Digital Economy: Kenya’s banks are shifting toward digital scale and payments as lower interest rates squeeze traditional earnings, pushing more investment into customer relationships and tech-enabled efficiency.